The plunge on Sam Mitchell to win the Brownlow has resulted in Gary Ablett’s odds drifting to their biggest since September 9, but Sportingbet is bracing itself for a barrage of big bets for the Gold Coast captain in the hours leading up to the final announcement.
Ablett’s odds have eased from $1.65 out to $1.80 at Sportingbet following a mammoth nation-wide plunge on Mitchell that saw the Hawthorn’s stars odds slashed from $21 into $5.50.
“Mitchell should really be a $12 chance but punters have backed him to win nearly half a million with us and even though he’s now officially our worst result, we’re more than happy to keep taking bets for him at those odds,” Sportingbet Australia spokesman Andrew Brown said.
“The big punters traditionally step in on Monday and we’re expecting to take a number of five-figure and possibly even six-figure bets for Ablett, especially now that his odds have eased,” Brown said.
Sportingbet’s analysts have Ablett on 30 votes, two votes ahead of Joel Selwood ($5.25) on 28 and four ahead of Scott Pendlebury ($11) and Dane Swan ($14), both on 26. Mitchell is fifth on 24 votes.
“28 votes could be enough to win so if our assessment of Ablett is slightly out, Selwood is the one that represents huge value,” Brown said.
“There’s been absolutely no love for Pendlebury and Swan and we haven’t written a bet over $100 for either of them since the end of the regular season,” Brown said.
Ablett is $1.50 at Sportingbet to be leading after Round 10, ahead of Jobe Watson at $5.50 and Patrick Dangerfield at $8.
Such has been the intensity of the plunge on Mitchell his odds of receiving 27 or more votes at Sportingbet have been crunched from $8.50 into just $4.25.
“I think there’s going to be a lot of disappointed Mitchell punters on Tuesday,” Brown said.
2013 Brownlow Medal
Sportingbet Australia market
Gary Ablett $1.80
Joel Selwood $5.25
Sam Mitchell $5.50
Scott Pendlebury $11.00
Dane Swan $14.00
Kieran Jack $31.00
Patrick Dangerfield $31.00
Michael Barlow $36.00
Others $51+